Chaos Theory #3

Hey there, welcome to Chaos Theory – where science meets tech, and both shape the traditional and decentralized markets of tomorrow. Together, we'll unravel the origins, discover new technologies made possible by science, and try to predict their impact on the future. If you're curious, visionary, and wonder how new technologies and science impact financial markets, you're in the right place!

In This Edition:

• Opening Insights

• Breakthrough of the Week: Getting Closer To Fusion Energy Control

• The Miniature Marvels: Exploring Smallsats and 3D Printing

• Smallsats Chronicles: Building Miniature Portals to the Vast Cosmos

• Smallsats Market Dynamics

• A Glimpse Into the Future: The Satellite Heist

• Closing thoughts

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Opening Insights

Amazon invests $4B in Anthropic AI startup

ChatGPT can now connect to the internet and is not limited anymore to September 2021 data

Thailand may attract investments of $5 billion from Tesla, Google and Microsoft to build an EV manufacturing facility and data centers

Telegram is becoming a super app similar to WeChat

Hong Kong based firm Mixin had $200 million stolen, this is the biggest crypto hack of 2023

Mistral AI makes its first large language model open source

Meta’s smart glasses can take calls, play music, and livestream from your face

Breakthrough of The Week: Getting Closer To Fusion Reaction Control

The Breakthrough: Scientists found a promising way to help tokamak reactors (fusion energy devices) mitigate misbehaving electrons during the reaction by using a unique type of plasma waves.

Why It Matters: This discovery could have great implications for helping us achieve fusion – a clean, abundant and powerful energy source, that would bring us to a more sustainable future.

The Science Bit: During the fusion reaction, the plasma formed contains high-energy electrons that can form some kind of avalanches inside, and harm the machine’s components. To prevent that, scientists found that they could use a type of plasma waves (called Alfvén waves).

Societal & Financial Impacts: If we managed to reach fusion, we would rely less on fossil fuels, and most importantly, it would bring a wave of fusion-powered machines that we can only see in movies.Top of Form

The Miniature Marvels: Exploring Smallsats and 3D Printing

What are Smallsats ?

If you follow Tech and Space related news as I do, you must be aware of SpaceX’s plan to create a mega constellation of 42000 satellites (Starlink) to provide internet basically everywhere in the world. Well, these satellites fall into the categories of SmallSats – small spacecrafts used for communication, imaging, and other space applications. But how small are they exactly ? It depends on who you’re asking because there is no universal convention. NASA uses the upper mass limit of 180 kg, but other sources use 500 kg or even 1200 kg. Imagine a small spacecraft that can either fit in your hand or have the size of a kitchen fridge. But that’s not all. There are even several categories of smallsats: Femto (0,01 – 0,09 kg), Pico (0,1 kg – 1 kg), Nano (1,1 – 10 kg), Micro (11 – 200 kg), Mini (201 kg- 600 kg). CubeSats are also a type of SmallSats and have gained special attention thanks to their practical sizes (10x10x10 cms extendable to larger sizes). As you’ve guessed, SmallSats are compact and lightweight, so they are cheap to build and operate, and open space to a wide range of players including startups, emerging technologies, and educational institutions.

Why Should I care ?

SmallSats represent a true opportunity to democratize space exploration and commercialization, two domains that have not seen much disruption because of the significant costs incurred. These small spacecrafts even impact your everyday lives without you noticing: from providing internet services to monitoring industries like agriculture, oil, or gas.

A Linked Technology – 3D Printing

Building SmallSats is continually becoming more straightforward. Don’t get me wrong: it’s still demanding (you would need solid technical expertise and resources), but it’s more accessible than before. 3D printing is a great cost-effective solution to build complex parts. Last year, 3D printing specialist Swissto12 sold its first small satellite to Intelsat and will place it on its HummingSat satellite platform, which is about the size of a dishwasher.

In Simple Terms

SmallSats are tiny versions of big satellites. People like them because they are cheaper to build through 3D printing, and easier to launch than traditional satellites. Both technologies are like a dream team helping us to explore space in a new and budget-friendly way !

Smallsats Chronicles: Building Miniature Portals to The Vast Cosmos

SmallSats: Tracing back to the roots

You can find a more complete timeline here

SmallSats Adaptations

Smallsats Market Dynamics

The global small satellites market is likely to experience significant growth due to an increased demand for tiny satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO), for satellite-based communication services, and because of a lower cost to reach space. We can also speculate that advancements in artificial intelligence, IoT (Internet of things) and Blockchain will influence the industry substancially.

Global Small Satellite Market Forecast

According to Sphericalinsights, the small satellites market will be very dynamic in the upcoming years:

• The Global Small Satellite Market Size was valued at USD 3 Billion in 2022.

• The Market Size Is Growing at a CAGR of 15.9% from 2022 to 2032.

• The worldwide Small Satellite Market size is expected to reach USD 13.2 Billion by 2032.

• Asia Pacific Is Expected To Grow the fastest during the forecast period.

Market segmentation

In 2022 Smallsats represent 96% of all spacecrafts launched in 2022. The mini segment is dominating: 71% (vs 12% for Micro, 8% for Nano and 5% for Pico). SpaceX and OneWeb’s smallsats account for the vast majority :

Key Players

From 2013 to 2022, 88% of smallsats launched are owned by 5 operators: SpaceX, OneWeb, Spire, Swarm, Planet:

And you guessed it correctly: most of the smallsats launched last year were for commercial use, and were launched by American companies:

Interestingly enough, Sphericalinsights estimates that the earth observation segment will have the largest market growth due to the incorporation of digital data analysis and geospatial data fusion and because of the future uses in agriculture, natural resource & disaster management, climate monitoring, and urban planning.

Conclusion

The smallsats market is an ever expanding market that will see a significant growth in the following years thanks to an increased demand in tiny spacecrafts that will be used for communications and earth monitoring. Reaching space will be even cheaper in the near future thanks to companies like SpaceX and other small launchers. I’m pretty sure that new developments in technologies like 3D printing, Artificial Intelligence and Blockchain will impact the smallsats industry tremendously. Is everything rosy though ? Absolutely not, there are big challenges: technical limitations (low life period of 12 – 15 years making them space debris), regulatory uncertainty, cheaper but expensive access to space, competitive pressure, and ethical and social implications.

A Glimpse Into the Future: The Satellite Heist

The Satellite Heist

On a chilly night, atop a skyscraper, Lena anxiously eyed her wristwatch; it read 11:55 p.m. She held a peculiar device capable of hijacking small satellite signals. A tip led her to suspect Singularity, a tech giant, of using smallsats for espionage. Now, one of those smallsats was orbiting above. She aimed her device, hacking it momentarily, but Singularity’s security was swift, tracing the hack back to her. Lena knew she had to flee. As she dashed towards the fire escape, her heart raced. With agents on her tail and potentially damning data in her device, every second counted. It was 11:59 p.m., the countdown to escape had begun.

Closing Thoughts

Smallsats are, in a way, the unsung heroes in our daily lives. They might not have the same capacity as larger satellites, but still, these compact gadgets make a world of difference here! Think about how video calling across the ocean or getting weather updates were made possible in part thanks to them. I appreciate how they, along with launchers (which I’ll delve into in a future edition), have turned the vast realm of space into something more neighborly and within reach. The industry is likely to continue experiencing solid growth, and I’m very intrigued to see how the new technologies we’re developing will mesh with these small devices.

Stay tuned for next week’s debrief!

As always, this is not financial advice and you should do your own research. Stay curious, stay informed, and navigate the chaos with clarity !